Make Neutrality, Not War

Neutrality as Peace-Maker

Neutrality is the key concept that could bring Russia's war of aggression against its neighbour to an end. Any eventual peace deal hinges on it, and at the very least, a ceasefire could be achieved.

In the middle of March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed to Russian negotiators that Ukraine could take on a neutral status. He also acknowledged that his country would not seek to join NATO. These are two major concessions on his part since the war began.

Although the proposal on Ukrainian neutrality meets a key demand of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin has not commented on it yet. On the contrary, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have stalled for weeks as Russian troops try to consolidate and expand Russian-controlled territories in Ukraine. At the traditional 9 May parade on Red Square in Moscow, Putin re-stated his claim that Russia had to declare war to ‘demilitarise and de-nazify Ukraine’. Meanwhile, NATO countries have stepped up their weapons deliveries to Ukraine. The war will not be easily won or lost by either side in the coming months, or possibly even years. In the light of this, the concept of neutrality could be floated as a model for a possible post-war solution for Ukraine.

‘Ukrainian neutrality is the solution’, argues Pascal Lottaz, Assistant Professor for Neutrality Studies at the Waseda Institute for Advanced Study in Tokyo. Ukraine previously had a neutrality clause in its constitution until 2014; it cancelled it after Russia annexed Crimea. ‘Now we could build a scenario around neutrality, with which all the parties – the Russians, the Ukrainians, the US, Europeans and NATO – can live with’, says Lottaz.

Armed Neutrality in History

Neutrality as a political concept was developed in the 19th century. Before that, Catherine II of Russia used it as an economic initiative in the so-called ‘First League of Armed Neutrality’ in 1780. Armed neutrality was not seen as a contradiction, as Catherine wanted to endorse the right of neutral countries to trade with belligerent countries. Britain opposed the concept, as it was thought to be a cover for trading contraband. Catherine signed bilateral agreements with Norway and Sweden establishing armed neutrality. In 1781, Austria, Prussia and Portugal joined, followed by Turkey in 1782.

After the Treaty of Paris in 1783, the significance of armed neutrality ended. A Second League of Armed Neutrality was started with the same intention during the Napoleonic Wars, but never gained the same importance.

Under the Hague Convention of 1907, a neutral country was defined as a state that will not participate in fighting against a belligerent country.

Several countries in Europe currently have a neutral status, or had one throughout the Cold War. But one country’s neutrality is not like the other, and if investigated more deeply, in most cases neutrality turns out to be more a term for being non-aligned rather than neutral. Neutrality never seems to actually mean neutral, and can be a very different thing in different places and at different times.

Although officially neutral during the Second World War, Sweden exported tons of iron ore to Nazi Germany. While remaining independent, Sweden let two million German soldiers pass through its territory in the direction of Norway and Finland. Joseph Goebbels noted in 1942 in his diaries: ‘Sweden did more for the German war efforts than commonly known … They emphasise their neutrality, but in a way, that is to our advantage’.

Neutrality as Independence Tool

Switzerland is the most well-known neutral country. Its status is even referred to proverbially as ‘I am Switzerland on this’ to indicate a non-position taken on a certain subject. Switzerland’s neutrality was established by the Treaty of Paris in 1815. Unlike other small neutral countries in Western Europe, Switzerland possesses a strong army.

Other tiny European countries that opted for neutrality to stay out of conflicts include Liechtenstein, Malta and the Vatican. Cyprus is non-aligned.

Together with Malta, some neutral countries in Europe with armies have joined the EU: Ireland, Austria, Sweden and Finland. This article takes a closer look at the debate concerning neutrality and defence alliances within EU member states, as this is most relevant for the future of Ukraine.

Sweden

Sweden’s neutrality has a long tradition. After the Napoleonic Wars, Sweden lost a third of its territory – including Finland, which was then part of Sweden – to Russia. The loss of territory was blamed on King Gustav IV Adolf for his strong anti-Napoleon policy, and he was subsequently overthrown in the Coup of 1809....