Middle East expert Gilles Kepel does not believe in a happy union of Muslim Brotherhood and democracy. 

Gilles Kepel, 58, is one of France`s top experts on Islam and the Middle East. Kepel has followed the fate of political Islam in Egypt since the beginning of the 1980s when he wrote his thesis "Prophet and Pharaoh". A political scientist, he works at the "Sciences Po" university in Paris. His latest book, published in French in April 2013, describes his travels through the Arab Spring countries over the past two years: "Passion Arabe", for which he received the prestigious "Prix Pétrarque de l`Essai France culture/Le monde 2013" prize.

Profil: The biggest risk in Egypt is not only to lose the battle for democracy but the breakdown of the state itself - the biggest Arab state with 83 million inhabitants could sink into civil war.

Kepel: A breakdown of the state is a real threat now. The events of the last two years have led to the destruction of the social fabric of Egypt. There are now two Egypts fighting each other. The non-Islamists have understood what their fate would be if President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood had stayed in power. The Brothers have understood that their victory has been stolen or hijacked. Now they will of course refuse to participate in any new government and in new elections. They have maybe been removed from power. But they have still enough influence and means to topple any solution.

profil: Was it Morsi's personal fault to have failed to establish a functioning process of compromise between the different forces in Egypt?

Kepel: Morsi was really not up to the job. The Islamists were unable to gather and keep the support of the constituency that had voted for Mursi. The Brothers so quickly became sectarian that they shrank their constituency instead of broadening it. Mursi appointed for example Adel el-Khayat as governor of Luxor. A scandal. El-Khayat was from the political wing of the armed group Gamat al-Islamiya which carried out the attack on tourists in Luxor in 1997. This group calls for strict interpretation of Sharia law, for total segregation of men and women and for banning alcohol - for a town like Luxor which is completely dependent on tourists it was the worst possible appointment. These decisions enranged anyone who was thinking not only about religious or secular agendas but about the future of the economy of this impoverished country.

profil: Will it be possible to include the Muslim Brotherhood in a future government or electoral process? So far they have rejected all approaches from the interim PM Hazem al-Beblawi until Morsi is freed. But repression alone - the old method of the army - will not silence anyone anymore in today*s Egypt.

Kepel: The Muslim Brothers will be as destructive in opposition as they have been in government. They have been persecuted, imprisoned, tortured and killed for decades before they started to rule last year. Resistance against a regime propped up by the army is for them the natural form of political battle.

profil: Why did the Muslim Brotherhood fail in government? Only because of strategic mistakes ? Could the Islamists have ruled democratically, if a better man than Morsi had been elected?

Kepel: It is the end of the fairy tale that Islamists and democracy can be happily married. In the Arab spring we were asked to believe - encouraged by the propaganda drums of Al-Jazeera - that after decades of Western colonisation and repression through army and dictators, finally the Arab peoples got to govern themselves with a proper and authentic form of government. A glowing future for the Arab world was about to begin: bearded men with veiled women on their side would unite Sharia and democracy harmoniously while still living happily ever after on oil revenues.

profil: The idea as you describe it now doesn't sound so bad - self-determination with careful consideration of local traditions could have worked.

Kepel: Nobody believes this fairy tale any longer. The cultural crisis of the Arab societies is too deep. They are torn between their civilisation, their religious heritage and the challenges of a post-modern, multipolar environment. It was amazing to see the euphoria about the new freedom two years ago. And it was clear it would lead to exaggerated expressions of nationalist and religious feelings. But in the Egyptian case the Muslim brothers reverted mostly to the paternalistic and passé ideas of society. After their big victory at the elections, they thought they could finally do whatever they wanted. At least they thought so.

profil: In Turkey and in Tunisia, the Islamists have tried - not without success - to govern democratically. You yourself wrote in an editorial in "Le Monde" this week that the Islamists of Ennahda in Tunisia are the only Islamist force which has managed to keep a commitment to all forces within their society.

Kepel: Tunisia is not without problems of course, but the spiritual leader of the Islamists, Rached Ghannoushi, made a different choice to Mursi. Ghannoushi`s Ennahda came to power as a minority. So they were forced to make concessions. The state in Tunisia is much stronger than in Egypt. Society is more secular. But overall we can see differences in political style. Mursi could not keep a balance in society.

profil: Should the Egyptian generals follow the example of their Turkish collegues in 1997? The generals then took control, dismissed Necmettin Erbakan but did not dissolve parliament and the constitution. Erbakan`s Welfare Party was allowed to run in the next elections and Recep Tayyib Erdogan`s AKP in the end has ruled for many years in a more or less democratic way.

Kepel: It is always the same story. Turkey today is like Egypt. When the Islamists decide that there is no longer any need for compromise because they are strong enough, then they throw all concessions over board. Only in Turkey it took years, while the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt immediately tossed democracy aside.

profil: So should we compare the situation more to Algeria in 1992, when the military threw the democratically elected Islamist government out of government?

Kepel: The Brothers in Egypt today are much stronger than FIS was then in Algeria. In Egypt they felt so strong that they openly showed their real face.

profil: Egypt is a difficult place for democracy because the democrats are so weak. The anti-Morsi camp consists of army, police, the leftovers of the Mubarak camp, and the democrats. Can this bizarre coalition ever work?

Kepel: The secular democrats are too weak to fight and to govern this country and everyone knows this. El-Baradei`s NSF with 35 groups rejected the plan of the interim government at first because he was not included in developing it. It is clear to everyone that the democrats need the army to protect them from the Islamists.

Profil: Which also means that our western governments - the US and the EU states - will accept some kind of "managed democracy" in Egypt?

Kepel: Well, take the cautious statement of the White House after the army dismissed Morsi. It is a clear indication that the US are not happy with Morsi being removed. For Obama, Mursi was a good government in strategic terms. The Moslem Brotherhood agreed to keep the treaty with Israel intact. US-ambassador Anne Patterson was booed by the demonstrators last week because they demonstrators thought the US had supported the Muslim Brothers too much.

profil: The Gulf States offered Egypt financial help this week. Billions of dollars from Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia will supposedly flow into Egypt to avoid a financial breakdown of the economy. What do the Arab royal dynasties want in exchange for their petrodollars?

Kepel: All Arab states have an interest in keeping Egypt from going the Syrian way. It is better for everyone if Egypt develops more like Tunisia. So far, the Arab Spring has a terrible record: With the exception of Tunisia, all countries are in a deplorable situation. For Egypt it will be difficult to develop like Tunisia because of its geographical position. There are two factors which decide democracy: oil and Israel. The further away a country is from both, the better are the chances for democracy. In Tunis the security of Tel Aviv is not a very important factor. In Cairo it is.

profil: What happens if the army cannot silence the demonstrating Islamist masses?

Kepel: Egypt is a giant in the Middle East. Unfortunately it is short-sighted, obese, and if it collapses like Syria, the whole Middle East will explode.