One of Putin's favourite things: Taming wild beasts

Ivan Krastev, one of Europe’s most important Russia experts, had the chance to dine with Vladimir Putin and to learn how the Russian president looks at the world. A conversation about power, self confidence and mistrust.

What makes Vladimir Putin tick? Since the crisis in the Ukraine erupted many have asked this question. It is not easy to answer as most who try have never sat down and actually met Putin in person.

Ivan Krastev was included in a small group for dinner with the Russian president while they attended the yearly Valdai discussion club in Sochi. Organized by leading academic Russian institutions this conference brings together over hundred international Russia experts. Krastev, a Bulgarian political expert, was included in the dinner with former prime ministers and other dignitaries, although he is known to be critical towards Putin’s policies.

His last essay, together with Mark Leonard, „The New European Disorder“ is a comprehensive analysis of the geopolitical situation concerning the strategic and ideological re-orientation of Russia and the failure of the West to understand the post soviet reality properly.

Profil: How was dinner with Putin?

Krastev: Long! Three hours. The group was very small, so we got to talk a lot.

profil: Who were the other guests?

Krastev: Former states men and representatives of other big powers. I think it is not appropriate for me to name them.

profil: You are known to be critical of Putins policies. Why did he invite you?

Krastev: I don’t believe that he personally invited me, he does not know who I am. This was organized by his entourage. I think some organizers wanted to invite critics, too. From this point of view being Bulgarian like in my case helps.

profil: Did Putin allow a debate or was he lecturing you?

Putin: He does listen. But I did not have the impression that he likes to hear differing opinions.

profil: What impression did he make on you?

Krastev: He is very straight, he does not feel the need to please anyone. He does not want to charm. It is a clear sign that he feels like a leader, he is in power and he can say what he wants. This is part of his emperor style.

profl: Is he charismatic?

Krastev: He is not an uncharismatic person. But I could not imagine the retired Putin. His charisma has very much to do with his power.

profil: A while ago there were rumors he was sick - cancer was mentioned.

Krastev: He looks healthy. I am not a doctor but the reports on him being sick do not seem to be true.

profiL: Some people seemed to think he lost it and became paranoid.

Krastev: No, he is not paranoid in the classic sense. He is certainly very mistrustful. He used the Russian word for „tricked“ several times during the dinner. He is even less prepared today than before to check how the world sees him. When there is unrest in the street he does not ask: Why? He asks: Who organized it?

profil: And who does he think did it?

Krastev: Putin’s problem is that he always thinks every problem he encounters is orchestrated by someone – usually the Americans. Although he also thinks the US administration is weak.

profil: Does he believe his own words?

Krastev: Yes, he believes his own propaganda more and more. But he also raised some valid points. He said: „First you asked for permission to attack Libya to halt Gaddafi’s attack on the rebels. We agreed. But then the West used the intervention for a different purpose: for regime change. And what came out of it? Nothing good. The same in Iraq. What was the result of the intervention? Also nothing good.“

profil: If, in his view, everything is orchestrated by the Americans - which role does Europe play?

Krastev: Europe does not really exist for him as a threat. Only the Americans count.

profil: Does he not underestimate the Europeans?

Krastev: He underestimates and misunderstands Europe at the same time. There is by now a consensus in the main European capitals: that Putin is a problem. It was a big mistake on his part to align himself with the very right and the very left forces in various European countries. Front National in France or Podemus in Spain. He is calculating that some of these parties come to power sooner or later. But this is a provocation for the European elite and Putin looses political sympathy.

profil: Which questions did he avoid and which questions was he keen to answer?

Krastev: He was keen to answer why Russia is doing what they are doing. He was not good in answering what Russia will do in the future. Partly I think it is because he does not want to share. But partly also because he does not know. He is improvising.

profil: You mean Ukraine happened to him accidentally?

Krastev: He has been acting from a position of weakness for the past year.

profil: This is tragic for a man like Putin who likes to be perceived as a strong guy.

Krastev: The takeover of Crimea was an attempt to cover up the fact that Russia lost Kiev when Viktor Yanukovich fled to Charkiv. The military preparation for escalation towards the Ukraine was there since 2012. But the political decision to take over Crimea was taken in the last 48 hours. It was taken out of desperation. Putin was thinking how he could cover up the defeat that his crony Yanukovich was ousted by popular revolt. He feared that the defeat of a corrupt leader would have consequences for him. There is only one thing Putin really fears: To be perceived as weak.

profil: Is his ideology the resurrection of a strong Russia?

Krastev: At the dinner he said something very interesting. He said that communism failed as an economical system but that the collapse of the Soviet Union was avoidable if the political personnel would have been more capable. He called them ineffective. But he is not a Soviet type - he does not think the future belongs to him. He has no ideology like this. The difference with the Europeans I would say is that he thinks that he lives in the real world. I find this quite dangerous because he is a cynical realist. He will act on the basis of his power and capacity.

profil: Will the sanctions make Putin more radical?

Krastev: There is no debate about the fact that the West had to impose sanctions. What else were we supposed to do? Give medals to the officers who took Crimea? The sanctions were introduced to show Putin that Europeans were ready to suffer for the international order to be upheld. Then people said: The sanctions do not work. But the problem is not that the sanctions don't work. They do work. They destroy the Russian economy. But it does not change Russian foreign policy. That is the problem.

profil: How does he react when someone at the dinner table tells him he should get out of the Ukraine?

Krastev: Ukraine is difficult for Putin because I think he does not get it right with the Ukraine. He talks about it as if it was an artificial country. But one of the results of this crisis is that a new Ukrainian identity is building which wants to see a clear border to Russia. Putin thinks there is a divide between the Ukrainian speaking Ukrainians and the Russian speaking Ukrainians. But what I learned on my visit to Kiev recently - I met more or less everyone in the leadership there - is, that some of the most vocal anti-Russian people are among the Russian speaking Ukrainians.

profil: Where did Putin get his complex from that weakness is the worst trait of a man?

Krastev: When the perestroika started, Putin was not in the Soviet Union. He was in East Germany. He did not see the gradual changes at home. From outside it looked dangerous and absurd. He once told the story how he tried to get the Soviet troops to intervene when chaos startede outside his office. And the famous sentence he remembers was: „Moscow was silent.“

profil: Did the Europeans do anything wrong in the way they treated Russia?

Krastev: We should not assume that because the Russian leadership is corrupt everything Putin and his administration are doing is for money. They are corrupt. But not everything they are doing is about money. You can be corrupt and missionary. If stealing would be the only thing that drives the Russian leadership they would not have taken Crimea. If you have made a few billions you start thinking about your place in history and want to leave a legacy and not only money.

Profil: Shall we prop up NATO in order to protect the Baltic states from more Putinist legacy? Or will this make the Russian president even more angry?

Krastev: Putin’s neighbours in the West need guarantees. We should do more to guarantee the military stability. You cannot tell the Baltics that we are going to fight the Russians from Berlin. Securing the local potential for resistance in the neighbouring countries to Russia is of great importance. But this is very much up to the Americans because I don’t believe that the European Union can do it.

profil: What will happen in the Ukraine?

Krastev: Bringing Eastern Ukraine back to the Ukraine could pose a new problem. The Eastern Ukraine is totally de-industrialised and will be difficult to re-integrate. So Russia might be watching how Eastern Ukraine destabilises the central government in the Ukraine even if the war is over. During the conference I attended before the dinner there were a few young nationalists posing their own questions - very stupid questions. But the Russian officials answered with utmost respect. Putin created an ultranationalist ideology which is now totally on the agenda and its followers might be difficult to control. At this point getting out of Eastern Ukraine will not be as easy than getting in.

profil: How shall Europe react to Putin today? You recommend to engage Russia rather than completely isolating it, right?

Krastev: Europe should say good bye to the idea that the EU should only border future EU member states. If we think of the Post-Putin-Russia we have to admit that we do not know if Russia will move closer to European Union values or not. So: Let’s take his plans for an Euroasian Economic Union seriously. The people who can pressure Putin to slow down is not us but Belorussia and Kazakhstan. Who wants Putin to get out of Eastern Ukraine most? Kazakhstan and Belorussia. Why? Because they fear they might be the next.

profil: Do you think Putin enjoyed this dinner or was he glad when it was over?

Krastev: He is very professional. But I imagine fun is for him something else.

profi: Was he an entertaining host?

Krastev: He has a sense of humour. His jokes are not pre-planned. they are spontaneous.

profil: For example?

Krastev: We asked him if we could discuss Russia’s new political orientation away from the West towards China. He answered: „No, no, no, we have a traditional orientation, we don’t change them ever, unlike others.“ He meant: „Other than you, Gayropa“. He says things like that all the time. I think Western politician are used to being much more politically correct, it is difficult for them to deal with his sense of humour.

profil: Gerhard Schröder or Silvio Berlusconi did not have that problem.

Krastev: True. But for certain reasons. Schröder for example had a working class background, the vulgar jokes came easy for him. This is another thing I noticed about Putin. He believes very strongly in personal friendships. If you think that he went to see Berlusconi during talks at a EU summit in Milan - this is the kind of personal loyalty which got him the job in the first place. The people around Yeltsin were looking for someone who was truly loyal. And when they were told that Putin stayed loyal to Anatoly Sobchak, the former mayor of St Petersburg, even after Sobchak lost office in 1996, they thought Putin was their man: They would give him the job and he would be loyal ever after and protect their interests even after they were out of power.

Profil: What did Putin serve his guests?

Krastev: There was a lot on the table. Wine, wodka, fish. But the exact menu I cannot tell you. You could write it is the only real State secret of this meeting. But the truth is: I simply forgot.

Interview by Martin Staudinger and Tessa Szyszkowitz