https://www.falter.at/zeitung/20241022/mitten-in-trumpistan

This is the English translation of an article published in German in the Viennese weekly Falter.  

This is where the US election could be decided. A visit to the swing state of Pennsylvania.

Kamala Harris' lead is dwindling. If she loses in the state of Pennsylvania, she will probably lose everything. But here, even immigrants want to vote for Donald Trump. 

Tessa Szyszkowitz Politics, FALTER 43/2024 of 22.10.2024 


W“Does anyone speak Spanish here?" calls Marco Rubio – in Spanish – into the hall. The Florida senator already knows what's coming, after all, he came to Allentown from Miami especially for this reason. In the old industrial city of Pennsylvania, two hours east of New York, many immigrants from Latin America are living today. "Siiii," the people in the foyer of the Americus Hotel reply. A beautiful moment in which everyone feels accepted. Marco Rubio, a "Big Beast" of the Republican Party, also comes from a family that immigrated from Cuba to realize the American dream. Successfully. The senator wants to make Latinos in Allentown proud of their origins. 

And to persuade them to vote for Donald Trump. 

On November 5, the USA will elect a new president. The democratic candidate Kamala Harris would be the first woman to move into the White House. But America can also choose one who has already been there before: Donald Trump. The former president from 2017 to 2021 has been a convicted criminal since June 2024. A jury in New York found that he had concealed the fact that he had paid hush money to a lover, the star Stormy Daniels. Nevertheless, the entire Republican Party now stands behind its candidate.

  "Among the most important sponsors are billionaires such as entrepreneurs Elon Musk or Peter Thiel. They support Trump because they don't want to be hindered by government regulations. They are interested in cryptocurrencies and AI. They also agree with Trump on many things in terms of content," analyzes political scientist Julia Lynch of the University of Pennsylvania. Musk raffles off one million dollars every day among the signatories of a petition aimed at Republican voters. According to some legal experts, this is illegal. "Then there are also many traditional conservatives in the Republican Party – they are socially conservative and against high taxes. For them, Trump's sexist statements about women and his racist remarks about immigrants may go too far - but he's the candidate now." 

According to star forecaster Nate Silver, Kamala Harris is ahead of the Republican challenger with 2.8 percent om the popular vote. However, this result is not necessarily decisive. In their 50 states plus the district of Washington, D.C., Americans vote via an electoral body in which 538 so-called "electors" sit. How many electors there are per state depends on the size, but there are at least three. Pennsylvania, with its almost 13 million people, has 19 electors. The party with the most votes gets the votes of all electors. It takes a total of 270 votes to win. 

Most states are traditionally firmly in the hands of one party. In California – a coastal area with large cities – the Democrats have been winning since 1992, and in Texas the Republicans have always won since 1976. In this election, therefore, those states that have voted once in this way and once in that way in the past are important. They are the so-called swing states. Like Pennsylvania. In 2016, Trump won with 0.7 percent ahead of Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Joe Biden won here with 1.1 percent over Trump. 

In addition, no other swing state has as many votes than Pennsylvania. Which is why the state on the East Coast south of New York has now become "Battle State Number One". According to polls, this election campaign is a neck-to-neck race. Every vote counts. 

Marco Rubio did not come to Allentown by chance. Immigrants from Latin America have been the majority in the city since 2020. There are only about 100 people in the sparsely occupied ballroom of the Americus Hotel, a good half of whom work for the Republican campaign. Beer can be bought at the neo-baroque hotel bar, and the Republicans offer free coffee and biscuits. "Among Latinos, the prevailing opinion has been that Trump doesn't like foreigners," says teacher Sara Torres. She comes from Puerto Rico and therefore automatically has US citizenship. But she wants to get immigrants from Latin America, who have a harder time, excited about Trump. The Republicans, with their conservative values, were a better fit for them than the Democrats: "I am a Christian woman with conservative values." 

Traditionally, new immigrant groups have tended to vote for the Democrats. According to polls, Kamala Harris is also elected by a majority of Latinos. The second generation of immigrants, however, is often more conservative. The Republican candidate may not be morally impeccable, but, as lawyer José Garcia says: "Many Latinos want to honor the Second Amendment: Trump is campaigning for the right to bear arms being preserved for us." In the past, the white working class dominated in Allentown. But the industrial city has had hard decades. Billy Joel sang his swan song to Allentown as early as 1982: "They lock up the factories, now they pass the time, fill out forms, stand in line." Donna Jo Long and her family felt the same way. 

She changed saddles and became a bartender. For her, Trump is hope. "He almost died for us," she says, alluding to the assassination attempt in July, when Trump's ear was grazed by a bullet at an election rally in Pennsylvania. "And yet he continues to fight!" Although she does not approve of Trump's stance on abortion, she will vote for him: "I am pro choice," she says, a woman should have the choice and be able to determine her own body. She wears a baseball cap on which Trump is written in glittering sequins. For her son Matthew, it is even easier to support the Republican candidate: "I don't understand my mother, how can she be for the right to abortion? I'm pro life. Abortion is murder." 

Abortion rights, which Donald Trump fought against during his presidency, are one of the hottest issues in this election campaign. Irregular immigration too. But one thing seems to be most important: "For me, Trump means that more money stays in my pocket," says Donna Jo Long. The price of gas, the price of oil, food prices have gone up. "I can't get anything for $50 in the supermarket anymore," she complains. But inflation has now fallen, prices could also fall, the US economy would not be in such a bad position at the end of this democratic term of office? "I'm not waiting for that," says Mother Long, "I'd rather vote for Trump right away." Her son Matthew nods. After all, he still lives at home. 

The pop singer Taylor Swift also comes from Pennsylvania, from the small town of Reading. Her parents had a nursery for Christmas trees here. The pop star is the best proof that Pennsylvania could also go to Kamala Harris. Swift's call to vote for the Democrat is worth its weight in gold for Harris. In Swift's hometown of Reading, however, there is currently concern that people will not storm the polling stations to vote, but afterwards if they do not like the election result. "If people don't accept the election results because they no longer believe that our electoral system is trustworthy, then we have a huge problem," says Thomas Vanaskie, a former judge on the US Court of Appeals. 

In Reading, lawyers are therefore training volunteers for the polling stations, they are supposed to inform the population about how secure the system is. "Please tell people that our voting system is secure and so are their votes," political scientist Victoria Williams told the audience at an event for lawyers at Alvernia University. Never before has a US election been so fateful as this one. X boss Elon Musk recently jumped around on stage at a Trump party in the Pennsylvania town of Butler and shouted: "Go vote and vote for Trump, otherwise it's the last election!" 

The Democrats fear no less for democracy. Former President Barack Obama tried to convince young black men in particular to vote for Kamala Harris during an appearance in Pittsburgh in recent days: "Jump off the sofa and vote!" According to a representative survey, one in four black voters under 50 would rather vote for Trump than Harris. According to Obama, the hesitation of black men to support Harris has something to do with sexism. 

It is not only black voters and potential non-voters who are currently being courted. Even those whom their God commands to build a heavenly kingdom rather than participate in worldly frippery such as democracy. Only about ten percent of the ultra-religious "Plain people" in Pennsylvania vote. The Amish and Mennonites belong to Protestant free churches from German-speaking Switzerland, which emerged from the Anabaptist movement and whose members immigrated to the USA since 1720. About 60,000 live in Pennsylvania, and up to 300,000 in the whole of America, according to their own statements. 

On a horse-drawn carriage, Martha and her two small, blonde daughters come to a farm shop to do some shopping. She needs fabric for new clothes, explains the young mother. Her carriage fits well into the scenic landscape of Lancaster County. The Amish live on their farms around the county capital Intercourse. They believe in nonviolence. One thing is clear: voting for the White House would not occur to her, says Martha. "But some people vote secretly," she believes. Some Amish after all also travel by car and have smartphones. 

Just like Benuel Lapp. At 78, Lapp is a Reformed Mennonite. He founded an ice cream shop in Intercourse in 1974. He stands there every day with his wife Margaret, selling ice cream from his own production to the tourists who come to marvel at the Amish and their way of life. Lapp himself does not vote either, he claims, but he knows some who do. If so, they generally feel closer to the Republican Party in terms of conservative principles than to the Democrats. "What has happened that we no longer speak of women and men as in the Bible?" he says. He could not understand the – alleged – transgender mania of the Democrats: "The world is no longer what it used to be." 

Not even further north. In hilly Lycoming County, jobs from the shrinking coal industry are being replaced by fracking. A large majority of people here vote for the Republicans, and they have always approved of shale gas extraction. This creates jobs. The protests of eco-groups, which warn of environmental damage and consequences for groundwater, bother very few here. In search of voters, Kamala Harris has also promised that she will not ban fracking. 

"People are fed up with the Democrats and their lies," says Don Peters. The retired policeman has opened the "Victory Center" here behind Starbucks – the headquarters of the Republicans in the county capital Williamsport. "Kamala Harris brought 13,000 murderers across the border into the USA," he says with conviction. Donald Trump has just started this lie. The truth content of this claim was zero. Does Peters really believe that Harris deliberately brings murderers to America? "I think so. At least they didn't care who came." Trump, on the other hand, is "a hard-nosed businessman from New York, he knows how to make deals." He had promised to stop immigration and end the war in Ukraine with Putin: "He stands by his word, after all, he also went to North Korean Kim Jong-un." However, Trump did not move much with his spectacular rendezvous in 2019. 

"Trump addresses things differently than I would," Peters admits. Pastor Peters actually, he founded his own church with his wife. But there is no more time for skepticism: "After all, I'm not voting for a pastor, I'm voting for a politician." We must slowly understand that the USA, like Poland or Hungary, is a fragile democracy Julia Lynch What happens if Donald Trump returns to the White House? "We saw in his first term how he politicized the judiciary, and I also expect a further weakening of democratic institutions," says political scientist Julia Lynch of the University of Pennsylvania. And if Harris wins, can she still govern this polarized country at all? "A lot depends on who gets the majority in Congress and the Senate," says Lynch. "We must slowly understand that the USA, like Poland or Hungary, is a fragile democracy." 

Trump voters hardly notice their own radicalization anymore. They mostly watch Fox News, which shapes their worldview. Don Peters does not mind being photographed in front of an installation in the Republican campaign headquarters. Someone took time to put it together. George Soros is seen as a puppeteer who pulls the strings of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. 

Does he really believe that the Jewish philanthropist controls the Democratic party? "You can't create a world government without destroying sovereign America," says Peters. What world government is he talking about? "The United Nations or the World Economic Forum – anything that Soros finances." Peters believes these crude, anti-Semitic fantasies to be true: "America has already been very weakened in the past three and a half years." That is why he must do everything he can to make America strong again. 
"MAGA" is Trump's campaign motto: "Make America Great Again." On November 5, it will become clear whether the Americans can be convinced of his vision once again.